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ACC Selection Sunday Outlook: locks and bubbles abound

With three weeks to go ahead of Range Sunday, distinct strains of demarcation have emerged. The ACC seems all but guaranteed to acquire at minimum 6 invites to the Huge Dance, but the possible is out there for up to 9. The ACC Event is shaping up to be a doozy.

***Author’s note: Beginning this 12 months the NCAA has “eliminated” the RPI and is now utilizing an performance centered rating program referred to as Web. A lot has been published about the NET’s faults, most notably that it employs raw performance alternatively of altering for the relative strength of the opponent. Nevertheless, it is nevertheless an improvement from the RPI and will be the major resource used by the NCAA range committee, and it is the only metric that will be used to figure out the earn quadrants for just about every group.

When Web is the major resource, supplemental facts details will be outlined on the group sheets presented to range committee members in the course of their deliberations. This includes, but is not confined to, KenPom rankings and a team’s SOS as identified by the old school RPI (now you see why I place eradicated in quotation marks…). Accordingly, in parentheses future to just about every group I have bundled their latest Web rank, KenPom rank, and SOS rank, in that order. Also, inside of just about every tier teams are outlined in descending order of their newest Web rank.

%%% Author’s note #2: This was published PRIOR to Sunday’s activity in between NC Condition and Wake Forest.

Locks: Virginia (Web: 2 KP: 1 RPI SOS: 18), Duke (3 3 2), North Carolina (6 6 4), Virginia Tech (12 11 72), Louisville (22 19 3), Florida Condition (24 17 33)

Florida Condition and Virginia Tech equally be a part of the lock tier soon after just about every went 1-1 on the week. Equally teams have a 21-6 record and though neither have an elite strength of timetable, equally have various high quality wins that area them in a position the place they could gain an at-huge bid even if they eliminate out. Florida Condition, in unique, is in solid shape as the Seminoles are one particular of just 20 teams with at minimum five Quadrant 1 wins.

Louisville will not miss out on the tourney, but soon after four losses in their past five game titles the Cardinals seed is virtually undoubtedly likely to be even worse than a couple weeks ago when they sat on the 4 line in the NCAA’s mid-season bracket expose.

Also of note, UNC is actively playing its finest basketball of the season and is starting up to place jointly the sort of profile that will have them in the dialogue for a 1 seed…possibly even using Duke’s area if the Tar Heels sweep the Blue Devils.

In darn superior shape: No ACC teams at this time suit in this tier

Much more possible than not to make it, but plenty of operate still left: Syracuse (44 39 22)

Syracuse experienced a reliable week, smashing Louisville in the Carrier Dome and then dropping a difficult fought fight from Duke—a group the Orange previously defeat on the highway. This resulted in an throughout-the-board increase in their laptop or computer numbers and assures them at minimum a .500 record in ACC engage in. Having said that, ‘Cuse cannot chill out just still. The Orange previously have one particular Q3 loss (at home from Ga Tech) and UConn—having missing their primary scorer to a season ending injury—is teetering on the brink of turning into a Q3 loss as very well. That suggests Syracuse can not afford to eliminate at Wake Forest on Saturday…except if of study course they earn at UNC on Tuesday. All in all, the Orange are in pretty superior position to acquire an at-huge bid, but they probably have to have two more wins (together with the ACC Event) to genuinely come to feel protected.

Squarely on the bubble: North Carolina Condition (32 36 144), Clemson (43 34 38)

NC Condition avoided catastrophe by defeating Boston University in additional time at home. They’ll have to do that all over again Sunday evening from Wake Forest, as a home loss (and a sweep!?) to the Demon Deacons would be an enormous blow to a resume that previously attributes the 2nd worst non-convention strength of timetable in the full state. Irrespective of a reliable Web rating thanks to some early season drubbings, NC State’s most important difficulty carries on to be the actuality that they are just 1-7 in Q1 game titles and there is only one particular option to boost on that mark still left in the season—at FSU on Saturday, March 2. So for now, the Wolfpack will just have to keep on to keep serve from the base tier teams and hope they can pull off the highway upset from the Seminoles.

In our past installment, we talked about Clemson needing to go no even worse than 4-2 in their last 6 game titles in order to place themselves in position the place only one particular earn in the ACCT could possibly be ample. Since then, the Tigers were being dominated at home by FSU and then eventually stopped their three-activity skid with a double-digit earn around Boston University. No genuine hurt in that week, but the FSU loss was undoubtedly a missed option. This leaves Clemson with two highway game titles from base tier teams (Pitt and Notre Dame) sandwiched about a home activity from UNC, and then a season-finished home activity from Syracuse. Likely 3-1 in that stretch isn’t difficult, but the Tigers’ will have to engage in some of their finest basketball of the season to pull it off.

Slight wonder essential: No teams at this time suit into this classification, as the Notre Dame Battling Irish missing equally their home game titles past week to drop to 13-14 on the season and into vehicle-bid or bust territory.

Car-bid or bust: Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Ga Tech, Boston University, Wake Forest

Boston University fought valiantly from NC Condition, but alas they missing equally their highway game titles this week to drop back to .500 on the season. The only way any of these teams will effects Range Sunday is by upsetting teams in the tiers previously mentioned them. For a group like FSU, dropping to a group like Wake would hurt their seed but not stop them from earning an at-huge bid. For a group like NC Condition or Clemson…you better stay clear of the landmines.

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