Okay, this is far from all bad. Actually, No. 13 Florida State sinking just one seed after a tricky pair of conference games to kick off the ACC schedule isn’t really that bad at all, all things considered. So let’s consider those things.
A week ago, the Seminoles were a 3-seed in the West regional, opening play with the prospect of two games in nearby Jacksonville. Then the ’Noles got stomped at Virginia before holding off Miami at home. A 1-1 start is just fine over those couple of contests, and so is the adjustment made in FSU’s spot by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi in his latest bracketology projection, released Friday.
Lunardi’s most recent bracket still has Florida State in the West, and still opening play in Jacksonville— just as a 4-seed instead of a 3-seed. The Seminoles’ new projected opponent is 13-seed Murray State, and if the ’Noles best the Racers, they’d play the victor of 5-seed Mississippi State and 12-seed Wofford.
Whichever squad emerges from that pod would face the survivor of 1-seed Michigan State, 8-seed Seton Hall, 9-seed Texas, and 16-seed Northern Colorado in a Sweet 16 matchup in Anaheim. On the other side of the West bracket, the top spots belong to 2-seed Gonzaga and 3-seed North Carolina.
FSU also averages out to a 4-seed in Bracket Matrix, while Team Rankings says that Florida State’s most likely projection, presently, is as a 5-seed. TR gives the Seminoles a 4.2% chance at making the Final Four and a 0.4% chance of winning the national title.